Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Putting U in the future (Part 1)

Predicting the past is easy, predicting the future isn’t. In the past the future was always predicted by grandparents, college cleaners and anorexic witches. (The latter being the worst kind as their skeletal body gives them negative buoyancy, thus rendering them impossible to detect.) Now a new breed of soothsayers have emerged, and they’re armed with science. Futurology and the futurologists behind it are sweeping the world with their technological brooms.

For many of us it is easy to fall into the Casio trap of believing that time is linear. Therefore we must start our journey by shaking hands with the triangle of time, see Figure 1. The futurologist divorces the yellow zones and embraces the sunny blue zone with its supernatural and superluminal powers. The three points of this cool blue (but extremely hot) triangle are weapons for the futurologist to wield. The geometry leads to the formula of mongrelation:


Science + Superstition = Superfact


1. Consequence
The modern day Merlin hugs Consequence in the knowledge that one thing causes another thing to happen. A lot of history is a direct result of things happening. In the futurologist’s book if it was good enough for the past, it certainly is suitable for the future.

2. Common sense
At breakfast the whiz kid wizard caresses the underused and often abused Common Sense. The vitamin ‘common sense’ used to be available in tablet form, but now mass distribution is handled by the Kellogg’s cereal factory. A 100g serving of Cornflakes with semi-skimmed milk contains 15% of the RDA of common sense, and 35% of vitamin B12 (a known psychic power enhancer), see Figure 2. By using these vitamins he can discern what could and should happen.


3. Patterns
Removing the cereal remnants from his teeth with his tongue, Dr Destiny is ready to snog Pattern and Symmetry in order to predict the future. However, reader, be as wary as a crippled cat crossing a busy road, the act of kissing carries the danger of being bitten (or in Tipsy cat’s case, the danger of becoming a pussy pancake). A practical real-world example is now unzipped.



Worked example – Days
Since Britain joined the European Union in 1914, it has been a uber-fact that ‘Tuesday’ has consistently followed ‘Monday’. With this uber-knowledge of a pattern and extrapolating forward the futurologist can say with an accuracy of 5.6 that there will be a Tuesday in sixty eight days time. Here comes the pre-warned tongue bite though. CHOMP. This type of pattern extrapolating only works for large or massive objects like days. Smaller and/or tinier objects have an inherent uncertainty, perhaps due to a lack of self confidence. Physicists and lesser scientists call this phenomenon “uncertainty”. So taking something tiny like semiquaver notes on a musical score we cannot predict what note comes next. In the opening bar of Rachmaninov’s “Concerto No. 2 in C Minor, Op. 18” the note G follows B three times in quick succession. It would seem a recurring cyclic pattern has formed, and so in the sixty eighth bar we would expect a G to follow the B. However the prediction is as wrong as incorrect is; uncertainty has crept in and farted.

This uncertainty can be taken to the extreme in the case of sub-atomic particles like DNA for example. The exact position of a particle gets blurry, and this blur can overlap with other blurred objects. So if you ever get close to me there’s a small probability of my DNA getting inside you. CHOMP. If there is a probability, no matter how low, it will happen. Bigger is better then? In most cases yes, having a large object avoids uncertainty. One notable failure is the weather. With its gigantanormous size one would expect a predictability greater than 15.93. The experimental value of -3.27 is a rainy day for forecasters both with and without umbrellas. The reason: the so called “butterfly effect”. Chaotic, anarchic and downright naughty butterflies take great pleasure in moving and swapping clouds about willy-nilly when the weathermen aren’t looking. Therefore the only predictable feature of the weather forecast is that new BBC weather girls won’t last a month before getting pregnant. And that has nothing to do with my uncertainty!

Now that the bed has been warmed with scientific thought, superstition beckons in a high-pitched and provocative voice: “Is that you?” The answer is as it always has been, and will be for the foreseeable and not so seeable future: “Yes, it’s me.” What’s next then?

Option A - The unknown future. Don’t know yet what will happen, I’m sure something will though, it always does. Things have a tendency to happen, whether we like it or not.

Option B – Read Part 2 which is a practical guide to combining science with superstition. Discover how to find a suitable partner, and learn the answer to the eternal question: “When will I die?” Can you afford to miss out on your destiny?

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